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2012 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Outlook

Eastern Pacific Hurricane Outlook for 2012

A long range outlook for hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific is kind of like dropping a bucket of ping-pong balls on a table and predicting how many of them will roll off the table. There are a lot of random factors affecting each ping-pong ball and where it will land, but after you dump the balls on the table enough times you can estimate how many will remain on the table.

2012 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

In past years the activity in the Atlantic basin is measured inversely to the Pacific basin. When they are busy, we are quiet and visa versa. One explanation for this is that the tropical waves are either used up in the Atlantic forming storms, or are passed on to the Pacific basin to generate tropical cyclones here. Forecasters call for this year to be quieter than normal in both basins. Here is the lead in from Dr Gray's forecast for the Atlantic Basin in 2012. "We anticipate that the 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have reduced activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatology. The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are relatively high. We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.

Obviously, professionals like Dr. Gray in at the University of Colorado and the guys at the National Hurricane Center do a little bit more than drop ping-pong balls on a table. Computer forecasting models work on a massive number of environmental factors, so many in fact that the NHC data cut-off for the Atlantic long range forecast issued in May occurs in late February each year. Super computers crunch the data for days to provide models that extend out 30 to 120 days. So a lot can change in the weather patterns in the mean time.

Overall the long range forecasts provide an accurate model of how many storms will form and the general intensity of the overall season. Predicting where these storms will make landfall is difficult when a storm is in existence more than three days out. Predicting how many hurricanes will make landfall and where, well that remains a fantasy for the insurance companies.

With that said, the National Hurricane Center, Dr. Gray and other weather services issue their yearly outlook for tropical cyclones. Most of the time they are pretty close to the final outcome. Several years ago, during the height of global warming debate (which is now over for those in doubt, professionals know it IS happening as a result of man's influence on the environment - we'll let "Rush" debate the nonsense) the NHC was caught red faced predicting a violent hurricane season in the Atlantic in a year which turned out to be particularly mild.

 

 

List of El Niño and La Niña Events
Fall of	Status	Baja Landfalls	Total Named Storms
1959		1	15
1960		1 Close	7
1961		0	10
1962	Weak La Niña	2 & 1 Close	9
1963	El Niño	1	8
1964	Strong La Niña	0	5
1965	Strong El Niño	1 Close	10
1966	El Niño	2	13
1967		2	17
1968		1 & 1 Close	20
1969	El Niño	3 Close	10
1970	La Niña	0	22
1971	La Niña	2 Close	18
1972	Strong El Niño	1	14
1973	Strong La Niña	1	12
1974	La Niña	0	18
1975	Weak La Niña	0	17
1976	El Niño	1 & H4 Lisa Close	15
1977	El Niño	1	8
1978		0	19
1979		0	10
1980		0	15
1981		1	15
1982	Strong El Niño	1 H3 Paul	23
1983		0	21
1984		2 TS	21
1985		0	24
1986	El Niño	0	17
1987	Strong El Niño	0	18
1988	Strong La Niña	0	14
1989		1 H3 Kiko	17
1990		1	20
1991	El Niño	0	14
1992		0	24
1993		2	14
1994	El Niño	0	20
1995	La Niña	1	10
1996		1	8
1997	X Strong El Niño	0	17
1998	Strong La Niña	1 & 1 close	13
1999	Strong La Niña	1	9
2000	La Niña	0	17
2001		1	15
2002	Strong El Niño	0	12
2003		2	15
2004	El Niño	0 (TD Javier)	12
2005		0	15
2006	El Niño	1	18
2007	La Niña	1	11
2008		2	15
2009	Strong El Niño	1	17
2010	El Niño	1	7
2011	Mild La Niña	0	11
2012	Building El Nino	?	?

Click to enlarge

This year the forecast for the Eastern Pacific calls for about a 'slightly lower than average' number of storms (15) and 8 of them becoming hurricanes. This is just slightly lower than the 57 year average of 16.4 storms and 9.2 hurricanes. But for modern storm watchers this is a bit higher than the norm for the last 14 years of relative calm in the Eastern Pacific. Over the last 14 years we have averaged 13.7 storms per year and 6.9 hurricanes.

Also see Hurricane FAQ's

The 2011 Hurricane Season in the Eastern Pacific was a quiet one, number of storms wise, but a particularly powerful one in the number of Major Hurricanes generated. Normally we have 3.2 Major Hurricanes, those that achieve Category 3 or greater. In 2011 there were 5 Major Storms. Due to the shape of land masses, wind currents and depth of the warm waters, few major hurricanes make landfall in the Eastern Pacific (with the exception of the Socorro Islands south of Baja which are one of the most hurricane battered places on earth) and only two have ever made landfall in Baja.

(Also see 2011 Season Wrap Up)

For years I have quoted in these articles that only ONE major hurricane ever made landfall in Baja, Category 3 Hurricane Kiko in 1989 made landfall on East Cape. This past summer the National Hurricane Center revised its database and now Category 3 Paul in 1982 has been added to that list, also making landfall on East Cape. Baja is fortunate in rarely having powerful storms make landfall but, having been through a Category 4 in the Atlantic, should we be forecast to have landfall of a major, treat it like a totally different animal than the "weakling" 1's and 2's we have had over the last few decades. (see Historical Hurricanes in Baja)

It has been a few years since Baja has had landfall of a powerful hurricane. Hurricane John was a Category 2 storms in 2006, taking out power, downing trees and ripping off roofs in light to moderate damage to the East Cape region. Not to discount the weaker storms, Tropical Depression Jimena moved across Baja, into the Sea and back into Mulege again, and dropped 22"to 34" of rain over a three day period causing extensive flooding.

Drowning in flood waters is the #1 cause of death in hurricanes.

On an average, Baja California Sur has a landfall of a tropical storm or hurricane ever other year since 1959. Mind you, not all of these storms are hurricanes, most are tropical storms, hurricane landfalls are actually fairly rare. On that note, we are a bit over-due for a landfall.

We have 'near misses' too. The greatest number of fatalities in Baja Sur came from Category 4 Hurricane Lisa in 1976 which caused extensive flooding and a damn to burst in La Paz killing thousands. By the way, the damn's rupture was later found to be bad decision making in prevention. In our statistical look at the year ahead we did not include those near-misses. In most cases near-misses before August don't even result in showers as little as 60 miles north of the storm and most dissipate quickly.

ENSO	Years since 1959	Tropical cyclones/ # per Yr	Baja Landfalls	% Chance Per Yr of Baja Landfall
El Nino	19	241 / 12.7	5	26%
Neutral	19	322 / 16.9	13	68%
La Nina	14	186 / 13.3	6	42%

Graphic above: The number of years of each cycle are fairly close as are the number of storms generated in the various years. But note the dramatic difference as to whether or not a tropical cyclone makes landfall in Baja is beyond statisical anomalies! The most powerful hurricane have hit in both neutral and El Nino years.

The Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season runs from May 15 to November 30th, but Baja's Hurricane Season runs from about mid August to mid October. Statistically, the third week of September is the most 'dangerous', although our latest tropical cyclones seem to like to visit Baja around the first of September. No tropical cyclone has made landfall in Baja since 1949 before August 15th or after October 17.

We are predicted to go into a El Niño cycle, from last years transitory La Nina. Since 1959 there have been 19 El Niño events, 14 La Nina's and 19 neutral years. These numbers may differ from the standard number of years of each event because my numbers reflect the status of the event in the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season, not the year overall. El Niño events create additional upper atmosphere winds which inhibit storm development in both the Pacific and Atlantic basins.

Baja is least likely to get a landfall of a tropical cyclone in a El Niño year and far more likely in a non-event year, as the graphic below clearly shows. So maybe we'll get off easy again!

And now for the fun part...

For the last 8 years I have made seasonal and weekly predictions as to tropical cyclone formation. Unlike the professionals at the NHC or Universities, I don't crunch terabytes of weather data. I do look at the professional forecasts, current trends and long term statistics. I also consult my own gut feelings, the Ouija board, roll the bones and other non-scientific methods that would make Jerry Falwell's hair stand on end.

I've done pretty well, averaging over an 80% accuracy. However, I have to give myself a low score for last year's long range forecast. Last year was a tapering La Nina and I called for a quiet season, but with two landfalls, one hurricane in August and a tropical storm late in the season. Last year was indeed quiet, but not a single system threatened Baja Sur. My weekly batting average wasn't much better last year, I could not believe how long the lulls were between storms. We had one "Storm Watch" issued and that early season system dried up well before getting close to us.

This year has started active, the third earliest beginning to a Hurricane Season in 53 years. Being an El Niño year, our odds are lower. On the other hand, we are overdue for a landfall. Temperatures have been increasing in Baja for the last 20 years, and this is forecast to be the hottest summer yet (seems they say that every year) but mind you they are talking a few degrees over a months time, not something you will notice when going to the beach.

Ok, enough dancing around the subject and down to what you are all waiting for... I call for one Tropical Storm to make landfall in Baja Sur in mid September. But what do I know...

Until June 4, happy storm watching...

Note to readers; For the past 8 seasons I have covered every Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone from A to R, including more than 150 Hurricane Watch Reports and twice daily coverage of early season storms that move harmlessly off into the Pacific. By the time the Baja Season rolls around in late August I've used up all my hurricane interest. As a result, this season I will limit updates storm information in the early season to once a day. Our Hurricane Watch Reports will be issued about every two weeks, until mid August when we will return to weekly outlooks.

As always, we will have 24hr updated on-the scene coverage and special Insider Updates issued on all storms that pose a threat to Baja California Sur.

I thank you for your loyal readership.

Tomas