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Tropical Depression 12E

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Weather for the Baja California Peninsula

Baja Weather Synopsis

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Wednesday, August 20, 2014 10:34 AM MDT Once again a strange day on our Mexico Surface Chart. Early this morning a 1015Mb high dissipated southeast of Baja, a High of that intensity is about 5Mb stronger than what we should be experiencing at this time of year and extremely tropical cyclone 'unfriendly' It dissipated quickly and now 1012Mb pressure breaks away exposing the peninsula to a southerly flow at 1008Mb. Tropical Storm Lowell has moved well to the west southwest of Baja and we have issued our last update for this system just minutes ago. Lowell poses no threat to the peninsula and may only provide some additional clouds to the northern state of Baja California as it dissipates later this week, Down south we do have an area of development which we will be keeping an eye on as the weekend progresses, but it is still 7-10 days from even remotely posing a threat to the peninsula. Things will get a little more humid today and many places across the peninsula could expect afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Track those inbound thunderstorms on our Baja Satellite Animation, updated every 15 minutes.

In Baja California, this is a prime time of year to visit the coastal regions of Baja California and in particular, explore Ensenada, where it will be mostly sunny with temps orbiting around the 80° mark for the next 10 days. As yo move inland it will warm up fast and in Mexicali look for a toasty 103° today, a cold snap of 97° tomorrow, then returning to sunny and over 100° through the rest of the 10 day forecast. Along the Sea of Cortez in San Felipe, it will be in the low 90's today, under mostly sunny skies, but creep back up toward 100° through the rest of the 10 days forecast and humid.

In Baja California Sur, it seems like the Board of Tourism writes the forecast, with mostly sunny and low 90's, but I'd bet it will get a little warmer than that, breaking close to 100°. In La Paz we have crystal blue skies and humid this morning, with temps expected to the mid and upper 90's through the weekend. For those of you NOT in La Paz, the forecast have not been calling for thunderstorms nearly every day we have had them. Here on the Insider, we know better, these thunderboomers have rolled in from the deserts and mountains nearly as often as the wettest year, 2012. Expect these storms, which have been ferocious at times this last week, to continue with greater likely hood through the weekend. In our Hurricane Watch Report we have some great videos of the storms that roared through here last week. In Cabo San Lucas the call is for mostly sunny today and mid 80's, remember that Cabo itself is cooled by Pacific breezes, as you move west toward the airport, San Jose del Cabo, the tourist corridor and East Cape temps will get progressively warmer, reaching into the mid 90's.

On our Tropical Watch, Tropical Storm Lowell is nearly 800 miles to our west southwest and no longer of interest. It is a massive storm by Eastern Pacific standards, but not particularly strong with winds only peaking near 55 miles per hour, it may strengthen a little more before crossing into cooler waters and beginning to dissipate by the weekend. Of greater interest to us will be area 92E, of which we have already initiated coverage on the Tropical Watch page. Right now 92E is way the heck down there, west southwest off the coast of Nicaragua, barely far enough north of the equator to develop spin. It is given a moderate chance of development in the next 24hrs but it is going to move across some very warm water an conducive air over the next 5 days and has the potential to become a Major Hurricane by even as early as late in the weekend. This system is 7 to 10 or more days travel time yet from Baja, but by mid to late next week could become at the very least, the closest pass to us we have had yet this year. Now mind you 8-12 days in tropical cyclone forecasting is an eternity, so don't start putting up the storm shutters just yet, but here in the Insider weather room we'll be tracking the development of this through the weekend. By early next week we'll have a better idea where this baby is gong to go. Enjoy your day.

Tropical Cyclone Names for the Eastern Pacific – 2014

active Indicates an Active System - Dissipated Systems show greatest intensity achieved

H4 Amanda

H5 Genevieve

Marie

Trudy

TS Boris

H1 Hernan

Norbert

Vance

H4 Cristina

H4 Iselle

Odile

Winnie

TS Douglas

H3 Julio

Polo

Xavier

TS Elida

active TS Karina

Rachel

Yolanda

TS Fausto

active TD 12E / Lowell

Simon

Zeke

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