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Lunar Phase

Tropical Cyclone Information for the Eastern Pacific

000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160950 TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE CARLOS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 103.9W AT 0900 UTC MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 989 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 103W AND 105W. CARLOS REMAINS A SMALL SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A W-NW TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...FROM WESTERN GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN TO JALISCO... THROUGH TUE. REFER TO LOCAL FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. VERY ROUGH SEAS AND STORM SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NW WITH CARLOS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES AND SWELLS WILL CAUSE LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENTS IN THE SURF ZONE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 07N92W TO 02N105W TO 03N118W THEN CONTINUES FROM 09N123W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 02N TO 08N TO BETWEEN 99W-107W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 16N135W WITH TROUGH TO 04N125W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH TWO ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ONE NEAR 23N126W AND ANOTHER AT 19N108W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 10N W OF 110W...EXCEPT WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CARLOS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS SE INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N132W TO 16N114W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND W OF 125W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 20 KT OR LESS.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELL CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE AREA WITH SEAS TO 9 FT COVERING THE AREA S OF 04N W OF 130W. THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 8 FT LATE MON. A SECOND SET OF SE SWELLS...MIXED WITH SE AND SW SWELLS WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR LATER TODAY...AND BY WED EVENING SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL COVER THE AREA S OF 03N BETWEEN 96W AND 120W.

$$ DGS

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Tropical Cyclone Names for the Eastern Pacific – 2015

active Indicates an Active System - Dissipated Systems show greatest intensity achieved

H4 Andres

Guillermo

Marty

Terry

H4 Blanca

Hilda

Nora

Vivian

H1 Carlos

Ignacio

Olaf

Waldo

Dolores

Jimena

Patricia

Xina

Enrique

Kevin

Rick

York

Felicia

Linda

Sandra

Zelda