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Weather for the Baja California Peninsula

Baja Weather Synopsis

Monday, July 28, 2014 10:31 AM MDT Topical Cyclone Hernan (red arrow) is now just a tropical storm and will likely remain as such through tomorrow, as it moves west northwest away from the Baja peninsula. The air mass over Baja is relatively dry, in comparison to the tropical air surrounding us, and the thunderstorms (yellow arrow) that move across the Sea of Cortez are drying up before reaching us. . Down south there are two tropical waves (orange arrows) and a little disturbed weather being stimulated, but nothing in development at this time.

In Baja California, The coastal areas of the northern state will be the coolest on the peninsula with temps in Ensenada only reaching into the mid 70's today, the upper 70's tomorrow. Inland, Mexicali will continue to cook, with temps of 107°F today climbing slowly through the week to well over 110°F on Thursday. Along the Sea of Cortez, San Felipe will be mostly sunny and low 90's.

In Baja California Sur, Guerrero Negro be warm, and sunny with temps in the low 90's. Loreto will be partly cloudy and mid 90's with a threat of afternoon thunderstorms returning tomorrow. In La Paz this morning it is under hazy blue skies and temps are forecast to toast us around 100°F through the first part of the week, In Cabo San Lucas look for mostly sunny skies and temps in the mid to upper 80's, warming quickly as you move east into San Jose del Cabo when temps can be as much as 10°F warmer.

Winds in the Sea of Cortez are expected to remain light and variable, mostly the result of local thermal conditions. Watch for very strong winds in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Most winds in Baja today will be the result of local thermal conditions.

On our Tropical Watch Tropical Storm Hernan is moving toward its doom, well west of the peninsula, the storm has greatly reduced in size overnight as it runs into cooler waters and drier air. The current upper air flow over the peninsula would seem to indicate that the remains of Hernan after it dissipates will likely move over the northern state and leave Baja Sur dry. There are two tropical waves moving across our map today, neither seems to be stirring up too much. The more westerly wave does have some moisture associated with it, but tropical flow remains strong to the due west and there is nothing on the horizon that might threaten Baja or Mexico in general. We have updated our SST graphics this morning. Sea Surface Temps (st's) are reaching seasonal highs. Much of the west coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to the Colorado River Delta are near 30°C. The conditions are ready for a powerful system to form in the area that provides us our landfalls. The all important 26°C thermo cline has pushed as far north as Magdalena Bay on our Pacific coast. Our Baja Hurricane Season is statistically 15-20 days ahead of us yet, but with these EXCEPTIONALLY warm waters we should watch for any system that heads our way to potentially arrive with greater intensity. But so far the flow is strong to the west and potential systems are forming just north of 10°N. It looks like this July is going to go down as one of the quietest in the Eastern Pacific weather history. Our last 'real' Eastern Pacific storm was Douglas. Fausto and Genevieve really did nothing to relieve the energy stored in our basin and belonged to the Central Pacific.

 

Tropical Cyclone Names for the Eastern Pacific – 2014

active Indicates an Active System - Dissipated Systems show greatest intensity achieved

H4 Amanda

TS Genevieve

Marie

Trudy

TS Boris

active TS Hernan

Norbert

Vance

H4 Cristina

Iselle

Odile

Winnie

TS Douglas

Julio

Polo

Xavier

TS Elida

Karina

Rachel

Yolanda

TS Fausto

Lowell

Simon

Zeke

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