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Lunar Phase

Weather for the Baja California Peninsula

Baja Weather Synopsis

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Wednesday, May 27, 2015 11:31 AM MDT This morning our Publisher, James coined it best, a "Tropical Nonsense Buster". Apparently someone in the media has become confused and more than one publication is talking about a Hurricane Threat to Baja in the next 48 to 72hrs. Although one never says never with Mother Nature, this teeters on the absurd. The 26°C thermo cline is more than 250 miles south of Cabo San Lucas this early in the summer. Not a single computer model, of a storm that has yet to even develop (Andres), puts the track of the system within 300 miles of the peninsula. Forecasts call for the the SLIGHT possibility of some rain in Cabo San Lucas on Tuesday and the spin-off from this system MAY track northeast over the peninsula.

In Baja California, In Ensenada forecasts call for clearing and sunny today, but it is mostly cloudy this morning and they keep promising warmer temps , temps will remain in the upper 60's today and the 70°F mark is now pushed back to Friday. In Mexicali they would love to have the cooling marina layer but under partly cloudy skies temps will climb to the mid 90's today, but skies will clear tomorrow and temps will crest the 100°F mark and by Saturday will be near 105°F. The bad news for Mexicali is today my be the last day sub 100° until late October. Along the Sea of Cortez in San Felipe look for sunny skies and temps working upward from the low 80's today to the low 90's on Saturday.

In Baja California Sur, in Guerrero Negro it will be cloudy this morning with marine layer and temps will be in the mid 70's today, mid 80's on Thursday and low 90's by the weekend. In Loreto it is one of the fine times of year with plenty of sun and temps bouncing around the upper 80's and low 90's through the period. In La Paz it is sunny this morning and we are expecting a high of 95°F and it is going to remain that warm through the forecast period and we may even crest 100°F over the weekend. In Cabo San Lucas they are expecting partly cloudy today with temps right around the 90°F mark though the forecast period.

On our Tropical Watch, today is the average normal day for the first tropical cyclone to form in the Eastern Pacific and Mother Nature may just oblige, as we have s system almost 1000 miles south of Puerto Vallarta that has a good chance of become that first system today, and a very good chance of it happening in the next 5 days. This system poses no threat to the Baja peninsula or mainland Mexico, as it moves off into the Pacific . The earliest tropical cyclone to affect the peninsula is a questionable one, passing less than a hundred miles south of Cabo San Lucas on June 13, 1959. I say questionable because the closest weather monitoring station to the then almost non-exist ant Cabo San Lucas was the part time manned station at the La Paz airport more than 100 miles to the north. Full time satellite monitoring of the Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone season did not begin until 1989.

For more on the long range look at the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season click here.
(Text is updated once per day – Graphics are updated several times per day)

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