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The first note in the Sea Surface Temperature Analysis is that this week
the NHC change the thermo cline demarcations from 2°C to 1°C above 26°C.
It just means more lines on the map folks.
The SST chart continues to indicate that fall is here. The
26° thermo cline continues to retreat southward, almost to Cabo San Lucas.
The 28°C thermo cline also retreated significantly over the last week.
Cooler and dryer air has replaced the hot and humid air of
the hurricane season here in Cabo and the winds have changed to the north
again. It is highly unlikely that we will have any additional tropical
cyclone threat this year.
Summing up our season, it was pretty benign for Baja
residents. Our first brush with a tropical cyclone came with Eugene in
Late July The Tropical Storm turned and headed north toward Baja but
degenerated in the sub 26°C waters just west of Cabo San Lucas.
Hurricane Hillary was a Category 2 hurricane when it
passed it's closest to Baja, but was a comfortable 300 miles away in late
August. Hurricane Otis brought the most rain to the western side of Baja
in late September, but never made landfall. Otis brought two days of
steady rain to the Cabo area, but only a few drizzles to the folks up in
La Paz, 150 miles away. The storm that never was may have presented the
greatest threat to the Baja Peninsula. Hurricane Stan, from the Caribbean,
made it's way across the Isthmus and interacted with a tropical wave and
intense thunderstorms along the mainland coast between Manzanillo and
Mazatlan. Fortunately, a season ending high pressure system slipped down
into northern Mexico and within 24 hrs extracted all the moisture and
energy from this foreboding storm. The area it which it tried to form
presented the highest probability of a Baja landfall. But, we lucked out.
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Click to Enlarge
Plot of the average number of tropical cyclones in the Eastern
Pacific and this years occurrences |
So how has this season stack up against normal? In June,
the NHC forecast that the Eastern Pacific would have a slightly lower than
normal tropical cyclone season. They were correct. The average number of
named storms in the Eastern Pacific is 16.4, in 2005 (so far) we have had
15. The average number of hurricanes is 9.2, this year 7 hurricanes
formed. In an average year the Eastern Pacific has 4 hurricanes of
Category 3 or greater. In 2005 only 2 storms achieved that ferocity.
The average time span between tropical cyclone landfalls
in Baja is 1.92 years (tropical storm or hurricane) Next season we will be
pushing our luck, since our last landfall storm was Hurricane Marty. (In
2004 the remains of Hurricane Javier made landfall in central Baja, but
only as a tropical depression) We
will resume our Hurricane Watch coverage the first week of July, 2006.
Until next season, safe travels and fair winds.
Tomas
Our Eastern Pacific Hurricane Watch is an editorial analysis of data from the National Hurricane Center, NASA and NOAA and is based on
information provided by the same, but is an amateur endeavor. For actual
storm information readers should refer to
notices and warning posted by the National Hurricane Center.
Animated Eastern Pacific Satellite Imagery
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GOES W. Visible |
GOES W IR |
GOES W. Short Wave |
Sea Surface Temps
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Baja Sur SST |
SST Analysis |
NHC SST Anomaly |
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