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Eastern Pacific Hurricane Watch - Final Report for 2005

 

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly


Sept. 26, 2005

Oct 1, 2005

Oct 8, 2005

Oct 22, 2005


Oct 29, 2005 (Click Image)


The waters have continued to cool around Baja. Now a majority of the Pacific Hurricane Zone is near normal or below.
 


Click here for 2006 Hurricane Watch

(Updated 01/11/05) Today is November 1st and this will be our last Baja Hurricane Threat analysis of the season.

The Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season runs from May 15th to November 30th. Statistically speaking however, a tropical cyclone has never made landfall in Baja after November 1st since the NHC began keeping records in 1950. So I think our threat has passed.

This past week Hurricane Beta from the Caribbean straggled across the Pan-American Isthmus. The remains of the storm are not expected to reform in the Pacific Basin. There is limited moisture available for the few remaining tropical waves to act upon within the Pacific Basin.

Sea Surface Temperatures continue to drop faster than normal. The Sea Temp Anomaly chart to the right shows a developing pocket of cooler than normal water has developed west of Baja Sur and extends almost to the mainland coast as far south as Manzanillo. Some of this water is already more than 2°C colder than normal

More Below...
 

Sea Surface Temperatures


SST Sep26, 2005

SST Oct 1 2005

SST Oct 8 2005

SST Oct 22 2005

SST Oct 29 2005 (Click Image)

Tropical cyclones thrive in waters warmer than 26° C and degenerate in waters below that temp. Areas south and east of the red line have the potential for a tropical storm strike


The first note in the Sea Surface Temperature Analysis is that this week the NHC change the thermo cline demarcations from 2°C to 1°C above 26°C. It just means more lines on the map folks.

The SST chart continues to indicate that fall is here. The 26° thermo cline continues to retreat southward, almost to Cabo San Lucas. The 28°C thermo cline also retreated significantly over the last week.

Cooler and dryer air has replaced the hot and humid air of the hurricane season here in Cabo and the winds have changed to the north again. It is highly unlikely that we will have any additional tropical cyclone threat this year.

Summing up our season, it was pretty benign for Baja residents. Our first brush with a tropical cyclone came with Eugene in Late July The Tropical Storm turned and headed north toward Baja but degenerated in the sub 26°C waters just west of Cabo San Lucas.

Hurricane Hillary was a Category 2 hurricane when it passed it's closest to Baja, but was a comfortable 300 miles away in late August. Hurricane Otis brought the most rain to the western side of Baja in late September, but never made landfall. Otis brought two days of steady rain to the Cabo area, but only a few drizzles to the folks up in La Paz, 150 miles away. The storm that never was may have presented the greatest threat to the Baja Peninsula. Hurricane Stan, from the Caribbean, made it's way across the Isthmus and interacted with a tropical wave and intense thunderstorms along the mainland coast between Manzanillo and Mazatlan. Fortunately, a season ending high pressure system slipped down into northern Mexico and within 24 hrs extracted all the moisture and energy from this foreboding storm. The area it which it tried to form presented the highest probability of a Baja landfall. But, we lucked out.


Click to Enlarge
Plot of the average number of tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific and this years occurrences

So how has this season stack up against normal? In June, the NHC forecast that the Eastern Pacific would have a slightly lower than normal tropical cyclone season. They were correct. The average number of named storms in the Eastern Pacific is 16.4, in 2005 (so far) we have had 15. The average number of hurricanes is 9.2, this year 7 hurricanes formed. In an average year the Eastern Pacific has 4 hurricanes of Category 3 or greater. In 2005 only 2 storms achieved that ferocity.

The average time span between tropical cyclone landfalls in Baja is 1.92 years (tropical storm or hurricane) Next season we will be pushing our luck, since our last landfall storm was Hurricane Marty. (In 2004 the remains of Hurricane Javier made landfall in central Baja, but only as a tropical depression) We will resume our Hurricane Watch coverage the first week of July, 2006.

Until next season, safe travels and fair winds.
Tomas

Our Eastern Pacific Hurricane Watch is an editorial analysis of data from the National Hurricane Center, NASA and NOAA and is based on information provided by the same, but is an amateur endeavor.  For actual storm information readers should refer to notices and warning posted by the National Hurricane Center.

Additional Resources


National Geographic - New Forecast Tools for Hurricanes
News from Yahoo - Are Storms Getting Stronger?
 


National Hurricane Center Forecast
How Hurricanes Work

Animated Eastern Pacific Satellite Imagery


GOES W. Visible


GOES W IR


GOES W. Short Wave

Sea Surface Temps


Baja Sur SST

Weekly World Sea Surface Temperatures SST
SST Analysis

Weekly Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
NHC SST Anomaly


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