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2008 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Outlook
May
15, 2008 The long range seasonal forecasts made at this time each year for the Eastern Pacific
Basin were on an average 92% accurate. 2007 was an average year in history for Eastern Pacific long range forecasting with an 92% accuracy as one fewer major hurricanes (Cat 3 or better) formed in 2007 than were anticipated. The correct number of tropical storms was forecast for the Pacific in 2007 at 12, a lighter than normal year.
Throughout the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season (May 15 - November 30) we will take a regular look at those factors which lead to the formation of hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific. Our Hurricane Watch Reports have become the most widely read series on the Baja Insider. The Hurricane Watch articles are not a forecast – we leave that to the professionals and Mother Nature even fools them some of the time. Rather, these articles relay information on the formation of tropical cyclones and the natural engines that build, direct and even destroy these climatic marvels. When it comes right down to a tropical threat, to Baja we will post the latest information, graphics and warnings from the National Hurricane Center and the Mexican National Weather Service. If you wish to have these warnings emailed to you, sign up for our Insider Updates. The BajaInsider endeavors to provide a concise and accurate appraisal of the Hurricane Threat to Baja with original graphics and reporting of actual conditions throughout Baja when a storm strikes. We seek to educate and prepare our readers as a community service rather than create the Hurricane Hysteria that was generated by the greater media for Hurricane John in 2006
With our disclaimer aside, let's look at some of the factors influencing this years hurricane cycle and hear what the experts have to say.
Just to be clear, the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season runs May 15th through November 30. Sea Surface Temperatures around Baja usually reach the critical 26°C mark around the first of August. The earliest hurricane to ever make landfall in Baja was on August 15th and the latest to make landfall was October 17th. The most dangerous part of our hurricane season falls in September. In mid October a cooler High pressure system usually slides south into mainland Mexico and poof - our humidity dries up and our threat is all but past.
An Almost Normal Year...
|
Forecast Cyclonic Activity in the Eastern
Pacific for 2008 |
||
|
Classification |
Eastern Pacific |
|
|
Forecast |
Average |
|
|
Tropical Storms |
7 |
6.9 |
|
Hurricanes (Cat. 1 & 2) |
5 |
4.1 |
|
Major Hurricanes (Cat.3,4,5) |
3 |
4.0 |
Total |
15 |
15.0 |
Data from Servicio Meteorológico Nacional de México |
||
So, what does the 2008 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season hold for Baja? Well, if anyone knew that for sure, they would make a lot of money working for insurance companies. Long range forecasts predict that this year will be slightly above normal for the period 1948-2007, but average for the period of 1966-2007. Statistical analysis according to the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional de México, puts this years environmental conditions close to the years 1951, 1955, 1975, 1999 and 2001. An anticipated 15 names storms will form in our basin with 7 being Tropical Storms, 5 Hurricanes (Category 1-2) and 3 major hurricanes (Category 3+). Overall, this forecast calls for 2008 to be a normal hurricane season due to the warming of the La Nina that has occurred in the last few months. It is important to note that the statistics for these forecasts is gathered between January and April, 2008.
Once again, forecasters are predicting that the Atlantic will have a greater than normal number of storms and the severity of these storms will be greater. In a back-handed way, this is good news for those of us in the Eastern Pacific as when the Atlantic is up, the Pacific is down. This is partially explained in the fact that the tropical waves, an integral element in tropical cyclone development, are all used up in the Atlantic basin before reaching the Pacific.
in 2006 Dr Grey and the National Hurricane Center got caught 'crying wolf'. 2006 forecasts called for the Atlantic to have a heavy season with 192% of the normal crop of hurricanes. As it turned out, the Atlantic was quieter than normal, a 67% error. Some even thought it meant global warming wasn't real. Not hardly, it just meant that forecasting models still have a bit to understand when it comes to long range forecasting.
Read about Historical Hurricanes in Baja compiled from the last 58 years of Hurricane Data from the NHC
El Nino & Baja California Sur |
|
• 48% likely to be impacted by a tropical cyclone in La Nina Years • 54% likely to be impacted by a tropical cyclone in Non-event years • 108% likely to be impacted by a tropical cyclone in El Nino years *Tropical Cyclones include Tropical storms and Hurricanes |
The bad news is that the slight La Nina condition and the circulation patterns forming early this year in the Pacific are weakening. With the waters of that region warmer, we might expect the number of major hurricanes to increase from the predicted 3. As it stands now, we are expected to get 1 fewer than average tropical cyclone formations and half the number of major hurricanes. (hurricanes greater than Category 3) This is good news, as Baja Sur has only been hit with one Major Hurricane in 1989 – Kiko which roared ashore on East Cape when the population of the area was much smaller than it is now. It is possible that sometime in the future another of these major storms will make landfall in Baja. For those who have experienced Cat 1 and 2 storm, don't be complacent, a major hurricane is a whole new game. But we'll look at that later in the season.
As the La Nina appears to be cycling, we may be headed into a El Nino event which will bode ill for the 2009 hurricane season. But that is still a very long way away.
The Weather Service report draws analogous data from the years 1951, 1955, 1975, 1999 and 2001. Of those years in comparison; 1955 had a tropical storm move along the east coast of Baja, 1999 had Hurricane Greg make landfall in Cabo as a tropical storm and Hurricane Juliette made landfall as a tropical storm near Magdalena Bay. Of course, making predictions on the landfall of tropical cyclones based on previous years is like predicting the course of a marble on a glass table. But it is not coincidental that all the analogous years did not produce landfall of a hurricane force storm in Baja.
These early season reports for the Eastern Pacific have a very good batting average. Last year the forecast proved a 92% accuracy rating, just about the long term average for the Pacific basin.
Like
last year, the slight La Nina effect that was present at the equator is disappearing. Right now the region is slightly above normal in temperature, indicating a shift toward a El Nino condition. The graphic on the left shows storm formations in El
Nino and La Nina years. As you can see, Baja is better off in La Nina years.
However, this data may be out the window, as California received record
rainfall in a La Nina year, which would normally be dry for the state.
The Eastern Pacific has water above the magic 26°C Sea Surface Temperature year round. However, it's somewhere around the middle of May that tropical waves begin to form in the deserts of Africa and make their way across the Atlantic to the Eastern Pacific. Thus begins our hurricane season. Now, there are parts of the western Caribbean that are constantly above 26°C as well. But, the ITCZ is too far south in May to deliver the tropical waves to that warm water region of the Caribbean. In 2006 we waited until May 27th for the first tropical cyclone to form while in 2005 a freak storm formed in the first two days of the season and came ashore in the usually hurricane free country of El Salvador on May 17th.
Insider Hurricane Watch – My guess for the 2 weeks ahead
Here is the fun part - my prognostications for the next two week period. With a hobbiest eye, no super computer or diagnostic satellites I look at the factors for storm formation in the period ahead. It is likely that we will see the formation of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific before May 30. I the last 10 years only 1997 and 98 did not have tropical cyclones form in the month of May. 2005 had a hurricane form on the 17th of May, one of the earliest. Most years have a tropical cyclone form in the last week of May. In looking at the current surface chart, I will guess that this will hold true. The second tropical wave to enter our basin will do so around the 22 of May, and could generate a storm. These early season storms almost always move harmlessly off, due west, into the Pacific. So, we'll go with that, we'll have one storm form before our next edition of the Hurricane Watch
So, that's the good news for those of us that live or have
property in Baja California Sur. But it's also wise to remember, it's not
just the number and severity of the storms, but their track as they move
toward Baja Sur. it is unlikely that we will see any tropical cyclone activity
until after mid August. But, it only takes one to take a path over Baja to
change all the bets. So stay tuned. Each week we will look at the potential
for storms and keep you posted on those that might threaten our magnificent
peninsula in our Eastern Pacific Hurricane Watch. We'll chat again in two weeks!
Tomas