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Eastern Pacific Hurricane Watch - 09/02/08
Hurricane Norbert strengthened dramatically Tuesday and is now
forecast to become only the second Major Hurricane of the season in the
next 24hrs. Forecast tracks are looking like it is going to make landfall
on the Pacific Coast of Baja Sur late Friday or early Saturday as a strong
Cat. 2 Hurricane. Hurricane Norbert is currently a Category 2 Hurricane,
very close to becoming a Cat. 3,
some 500 miles south of Cabo San Lucas
October 7, 2008The forecast path of Norbert has now been consistent for 36hrs, placing the storm's track across the central portions of Baja Sur. Norbert, once thought to barely achieve Category 1 status, is now forecast to become a Category 3 storm, possibly even Cat. 4, and diminish to a strong Cat. 2 storm before making landfall on the Pacific coast of Baja Sur. All of Baja Sur is within the potential track of this hurricane. Hurricane force winds may extend out as far as 50 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds more than 100 miles from the center at the time of landfall.
There is still a lot of ocean for Norbert to cover before reaching Baja Sur and the intensity is the most difficult part of hurricane forecasting. But, the NHC says we should expect landfall of this tropical cyclone by the weekend and it has the potential to be the strongest hurricane since John in 2006. The storm track has Norbert moving NE across the peninsula and those folks in Loreto and Mulege should prepare for the strong likelihood of heavy rain and flooding.
Click here for more on Hurricane Norbert
It is important to note that the waters WSW of Baja Sur are as much as 2°C warmer than normal and this will contribute to the strength of Norbert as it comes ashore in that region. Normally, our statistical 'major threat period' would end today (10/7) and the latest hurricane to ever make landfall in Baja did so on October 17th. It really doesn't feel like Hurricane Season here anymore, perhaps Norbert will dry up and blow away before reaching us. But, we should all get ready anyway.
Residents of all of Baja California Sur should calmly begin preparation for the arrival of hurricane conditions as early as Friday. This storm has accelerated its forward progress and could continue to intensify and shorten the time span for securing your property.
It will be very important to properly prepare and keep a close eye on the progress of this storm. With plenty of time we have a better chance of minimizing damage and avoiding injury. Norbert is currently forecast to make landfall as a strong Category 2 Hurricane, of which many of you have experienced before. Should landfall of a Major Hurricane (one of Category 3 or greater) become predicted, know that it is an entirely different game than our previous hurricanes and those in the direct path of the storm should seriously consider evacuation. Baja has only seen landfall of one Cat. 3 storm in the last 50 years.
So, let's everyone remain calm, help your neighbor and keep a very close eye on this approaching hurricane.