Eastern Pacific Hurricane Watch -  No More Storms

SST Analysis

Tropical cyclones thrive in waters warmer than 26° C and degenerate in waters below that temp. Areas south and east of the red line have the potential for a tropical storm strike

When we look at the Sea Surface temperature graphic left, we can see there is one factor which still supports the potential for tropical cyclone formation – +26°C water. On the Sea side, things have remained about the same over the last few weeks. On the Pacific side we can see warmer water is pushing north near Cabo San Lucas, but colder water is also pushing south, near the Cedros Islands.

The all important 26°C thermo cline indicated in red, is still holding near Magdalena Bay on the Pacific side, while all of the Sea of Cortez would still support cyclonic activity.

The fifth key factor in tropical cyclone formation is distance from the equator, so the Corollas Effect can cause the storm to spin. Baja Sur will always be far enough away for that!

SST Anomaly

The colors represent deviation of this years water temperatures from the norm. Green is normal, blue colder than normal and yellow warmer than normal waters.

The details in the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly are almost moot, with so many other factors stacking up against tropical cyclone formation Almost all of our portion of the Eastern Pacific is slightly above seasonable temperatures. In the Sea of Cortez from Bahia de La Paz north east, the Sea is 1°C or more above normal. This should mean nothing more than extended good fishing in the Sea.

Of some interest to our readers in the West and Northwest should be an area of exceptionally warmer than normal waters that has developed about 2000 miles west of the US, on the Asian side of the Pacific. There an area of water up to 4°C, about 7°F warmer than normal has appeared over the last three weeks. In the graphic below you can see the impressive size of this body of relatively HOT water. This could mean an early start to the rains along the Pacific coast of the US and should it continue, it could mean a very wet winter.

So now the fun part, my prognostications. I'm ending the season on a much better note. I correctly anticipated the formation of both Ivo and Juliette gaining a 100% score for my last week. I'm pretty sure I can repeat this again this week. No more storms.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say our 2007 Baja Tropical Cyclone Season history! The statistics back me up, a tropical cyclone has never made landfall after October 17th since records were kept by the National Hurricane Center, beginning in 1949.! Even way down south, far from any area that might affect Baja, there is cooling and little moisture. Along with the mid an upper level turbulence that is increasing as winter approaches I am going to look into my crystal ball and say, the Eastern Pacific is done generating tropical cyclones for 2007.

So, what are we left with? Crystal blue skies, lower temperatures and some of the finest outdoor activity weather Baja has to offer. With the very remote possibility of another storm forming this will be our last Hurricane Watch for 2007. After the season offically ends we will have a wrap of of our storms for the year.

Until November 1st... Clear skies and fair winds!  
Tomas

Our Eastern Pacific Hurricane Watch is an editorial/entertainment analysis of data from the National Hurricane Center, NASA and NOAA and is based on information provided by the same, but is an amateur endeavor. For actual storm information readers should refer to notices and warnings posted by the National Hurricane Center. or visit the Mexican Nation Metrological website for more information.