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It has been common knowledge or at least speculation of
many of the locals in Baja California that the temperatures of the Sea of Cortez and
Pacific Ocean may have a great influence on the tracks that hurricanes take
in Mexico.
As the Sea of Cortez in the later part of the hurricane
season warms up to the mid and upper 90’s (Fahrenheit) it seems to literally
suck the hurricanes up between the peninsula of Baja California and mainland
Mexico instead of heading west towards the Hawaiian islands.
 These
hurricanes then can “pinball” their way up on some rather unpredictable tracks
due to the land masses on both sides. Imagine a spinning top thrown down a
narrow hallway. It is a little hard to predict where it may go.
Last years’
Marty which made land fall in La Paz was said
to have already gone by 8 hours before it returned to do it’s devastation
of the
marine world of La Paz.
Also See:
Baja Hurricane History
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Those hurricanes that come up the pacific side of the peninsula however
seem to be easier to predict as was the case with Fausto in 1996. I
remember well, how the National Hurricane Center predicted the proposed
track four days before it arrived and proved to be very accurate
concerning Baja.
The influence of sea temperature has bee
studied more and more, and as of June 2003 NOAA started providing global
near-real time estimates of tropical cyclone
heat potential
in the seven basins during all year. We are located in Northeast
 Pacific
basin
(click
here for Baja heat potential). This and many other great
resources for preparing and tracking hurricanes can be found in our
Tropical Weather Alerts page here at the BajaInsider.
Having greater awareness of Hurricanes, their
potential, possible behavior, and proposed track is all apart of being
prepared. Helping you be safe during these somewhat unpredictable and yet
very exciting months ahead.
Be aware, informed and prepared and you can
stand by and revel as the Sea of Cortez Sucks up another one.
Happy hurricane season to you all! Jaime
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