Wednesday October 17 2018

  • 5 Day Forecast Path for Tropical Cyclone Miriam

DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...13.2N 125.3W
ABOUT 1210 MI...1950 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

5 Day Forecast for Tropical Cyclone Miriam
1500 UTC SUN AUG 26 2018
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 125.3W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 125.3W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 124.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.3N 127.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.5N 129.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 13.5N 131.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 13.5N 133.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.5N 137.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 14.9N 140.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 18.5N 142.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

Sunday August 26, 2018 Tropical Depression 15E has evolved into Tropical Storm Miriam some 1210 miles to the southwest of Cabo San Lucas. Miriam is forecast to strengthen over the next 24hrs and become a hurricane as it moves to the west-northwest. Tropical Cyclone Miriam should pose no threat to the Baja peninsula as it has formed in a position that will take it into the Central Pacific in the next 48hrs, before the system turns more to the north. 

At 9Am Tropical Storm Mioriam was located near 13.2N 125.3W and was moving 275° at 11kts. Central barometric pressure was 1004Mb and winds were 40-50 kts making Miriam a Tropical Storm. Tropical Storm force winds extend out 30 miles in all but the southwest quadrant. 

Miriam is forecast to achieve Hurricane intensity sometime late Monday as it moves west into the Central Pacific. The system should pose no threat to the Baja peninsula. 

There will be no further updates to this page unless Miriam's threat to the Baja peninsula should change.

 


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