Wednesday October 17 2018

  • 5 Day Forecast for Tropical Cyclone Sergio
  • Historical path Tropical Cyclone Sergio,
  • No previous tropical cyclone has threatened Baja from Sergio's current location

SERGIO HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... 

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...28.4N 111.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

The government of Mexico has discontinued all the Tropical Storm Warnings.

 

 

Friday 12 October, 2018 Tropical Cyclone Sergio crossed the peninsula overnight and is now dissipating over mainland Mexico. Even though Sergio made landfall in Baja California Sur almost exactly where the forecasts have been predicting for more than a week, the bulk of the rain fell in the northern state of Baja California. From the El Vizcaíno Biosphere Reserve and the states border northward to San Quintin received the heaviest rain bands generated by Tropical Storm Sergion. Look for temporary road closures on Baja's Hwy 1 for the next 48hrs. 

Because fuel to the central Baja region comes from either Rosarito Beach or La Paz, there may be temporary fuel shortages caused by the road closures.

The system emerged over the Sea of Cortez near Santa Rosilia and crossed the Sea to make landfall again on the mainland side near Guaymas as a Tropical Depression. Serio was a fast moving system and is forecast to dissipate into history by tommorow.  

NHC Forecast Data for Tropical Cyclone Sergio at 12PM MDT 

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 111.9W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  21 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE  80SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 210SE 210SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 29.5N 109.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

 

At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sergio was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 111.0 West. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, Sergio or its remnants will continue to move over northwestern Mexico later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Sergio is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low while moving over northwestern Mexico later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

There will be no further updates to this page.

 

 

 

Predicted Wind Speeds & Direction
City Friday 00AM Friday 5AM Friday 8AM Friday 12PM Friday 4PM Friday 6PM
Bahia de Los Angeles 2-6kts E 8-12kts E 8-12kts NE 10-14kts NE 8-12kts NE 7-10kts N
Vizcaíno 11-15kts NE 18-23kts NE 24-28kts NE 25-29kts NE 18-22kts NE 7-10kts W
San Ignacio 6-12kts E 32-36kts E 40-46kts S 30-26kts W 20-26kts W 16-18kts W
Guerrero Nego 8-12kts E 24-28kts E 21-25kts N 21-25kts N 23-27kts W 19-21kts W
Santa Rosalia 3-6kts SE 9-12kts SE 32-36kts E 32-36kts E 19-24kts W 10-14kts W
San Juanico 10-15kts E 30-36kts SE 38-42kts S 33-38kt SW 18-22kts SW 14-20kts W
Loreto 3-5kts SE 12-16kts SE 18-22kts S 20-24kts SW

24-28kts SW

16-20kts SW

Constitucion 9-12kts SE 22-26kts SE 20-24kts S 23-28kts SW  18-20kts SW 15-18kts W
La Paz 7-12kts SSE 12-16kts SE 17-22kts S 19-24kts SW 18-22kts SW  14-18kts SW

 

 

 

2018 Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclones

 
Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Names for 2018
 

Tropical Storm Carlotta
DISSIPATED

Tropical Storm Fabio
DISSIPATED

Tropical Storm Ileana
DISSIPATED

Hurricane Lane
MAX: H5
DISSIPATED

Hurricane Olivia
Max: Cat H4
DISSIPATED

Tropical Cyclone Sergio
Max: Cat H4
DISSIPATED

Wila
Hurricane Aletta
MAX: H3
DISSIPATED
Tropical Storm Daniel
DISSIPATED
Tropical Storm Gilma
DISSIPATED
Hurricane John
Max: H2
DISSIPATED
Tropical Cyclone Miriam
Max: H2
DISSIPATED
Tropical Storm Paul
DISSIPATED

Tropical Cyclone Tara
Tropical Storm
DISSIPATED

Yolanda
Hurricane Bud
MAX: H4
DISSIPATED
Tropica Storm Emila
DISSIPATED

Hurricane Hector
Max: H4
DISSIPATED

Tropical Storm Kristy
DISSIPATED

Tropical Cyclone Norman
MAX: H5
DISSIPATED

Hurricane Rosa
Max Cat H4
DISSIPATED
Vincent Zeke

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