Area of Interest 90E

09PM MDT 03/09/2016 Area of interest 90E continues to show signs of development along the southern coast of Mexico near the Guatemalan border. Area 90E is given a very good chance of development in the next 48hrs and over the next 5 days. Early preformation model runs do show the system posing a threat to the southern most portions of the Baja peninsula as early as the first part of next week. It is important to remember that 90E is still a very long ways away from the peninsula and has yet to even establish itself as a tropical cyclone. But due to the fact that this is the statistical Baja Hurricane Season, that many of the conditions are ripe for a Baja landfall of a tropical cyclone and of course, that the early computer models aim this system directly at the southern peninsula, the BajaInsider will continue to track the development of this system through the weekend.

Official Forecast from the National Hurricane Center:

An elongated area of low pressure continues to produce an extensive area of disorganized cloudiness and showers, extending several hundred miles south through southwest of the southern coast of Mexico. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for development, and this area of disturbed weather is likely to consolidate and become a tropical depression on Sunday or Monday while it moves nearly parallel to the southwest coast of Mexico.  Regardless of development, gusty winds and heavy rains causing flash floods and mud slides are expected in coastal portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit this weekend into early next week. Interests in these areas and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this disturbance. 

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent