Tuesday June 12, 2018 Hurricane Bud is now about 300 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas and has weakened slightly, to once again become a Category 3 Hurricane and forecast calls for a fairly rapid dissipation over the next 36hrs. Current forecasts call for Bud to turn more northward and make landfall near Todos Santoa, just north of Cabo San Lucas, late Thursday or very early Friday. The system is then forecast to move north across the peninsula and pass over the states capital and largest city, La Paz as a Tropical Depression. It is believed that this is the peak intensity for Bud.
Tropical Cyclones require water of more than 26°C to sustain the cyclonic action. There are between 300 miles of that cooler water between Bus and Land’s End, over which Tropical Cyclone Bud will have to ‘coast’, losing energy and integrity before reaching us. The system is forecast to be reduced to a tropical storm before making a direct hit on Cabo San Lucas on Friday afternoon as a Tropical Storm with winds to 55kts. La Paz should be looking for a direct hit by the weakening system on Friday. But arrival times and wind conditions could still vary greatly, with many factors that could influence the outcome.
We will continue to update our Tropical Cyclone Bud information every 3hrs. Next update at 9 PM MDT Tuesday.
Looking a little further into the future, this isn’t going to be the end of the flurry of development in the Eastern Pacific. There is yet another tropical wave entering our basin and with the Madden Julian Oscillation still in a convective cycle, it looks like another Low will start to get organized in the same location that spawned Aletta and Bud. We may be watching this potential system a week from now.
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This isn’t going to be another Odile, the climatic conditions just are not there to support a tropical cyclone that powerful this early in the season. So make your standard preparations for strong winds to 50kts in Cabo San Lucas to 40kts in La Paz and those placed in between. The Pacific coast from Los Barriles to Todos Santos is likely to get the worst of it, however ‘worse’ that may be.
Our major cities bounce back pretty quickly after a storm of this projected intensity, but having a little extra clean water and some cash on hand is never a bad idea. Avoid the large surf with significant undertow, never be the first to cross a flooded paved arroyo, and just don’t cross a flooded unimproved arroyo. Stay away from large glass windows directly facing the path of the storm and to cover just about everything else, avoid doing something stupid.
With a Baker’s Dozen hurricanes under my belt, just stick to those simple rules, particularly the last one, and enjoy witnessing the fury of Mother Nature.
Looks like we’re gonna get some weather folks.
Tomas
| Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Names for 2018 | |||||||
| Carlotta | Fabio | Ileana | Lane | Olivia | Sergio | Wila | |
Hurricane Aletta MAX: H3 DISSIPATED |
Daniel | Gilma | John | Miriam | Paul | Tara | Yolanda |
|
Hurricane Bud Category 3 |
Emila | Hector | Kristy | Norman | Rosa | Vincent | Zeke |
