Monday 17 September 2018 It is Monday, but it seems appropriate to update the Tropical Watch today, rather than wait for Tuesday’s data. This week is threat is more imminent and less abstract. The southern tip of the peninsula is staring down the barrel of a Tropical Cyclone shotgun while Mother Nature load the chamber. With the 11AM release things look a little better for the tip of the peninsula with a reduced chance of formation (60%) over the next 5 days, really in the next 36hrs before it begins to interact with the peninsula.
| 09/17 05PM Posting from the National Hurricance Center |
|
Tropical Weather Outlook For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude: 1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast through south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear conducive for tropical cyclone formation, the large size of the system and possible land interaction should prevent any significant or rapid development from occurring during the next day or so. However, this system could become a tropical depression on Wednesday or Thursday as it approaches Baja California Sur and enters the Gulf of California. Regardless of development, this broad disturbance will likely produce very heavy rainfall over Baja California Sur and other parts of northwestern mainland Mexico later this week. Interests in Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. |
Between 250 and 300 miles south of Cabo San Lucas we have an area of potential tropical cyclone development. The probably course of this system as it develops puts it in the neighborhood of a Baja California Sur landfall. Particularly exposed are the south facing areas from San Jose del Cabo, around Land’s End and north along the Pacific shore to San Ignacio.
It is starting to look more certain that we are going to get some inclement weather mid week. How ugly things will get is still uncertain.
The system’s development is currently be slowed by its own massive size. The forecast gives the area low chance of development over the next 24hrs but a high (70%) chance of development over the next 5 days. Forecasts call for the system’s effects to reach Baja late Tuesday or Wednesday. By their own math, that doesn’t give this system much of a window for development before reaching the peninsula. That is a good thing.
The system is forecast to follow a route toward the peninsula along the 28°C/29°C thermocline in the graphic released this morning for Sea Surface Temps in the Eastern Pacific. That is all of its lifetime over warm waters quite capable of supporting cyclonic action all the way to a potential landfall on the peninsula. This is a bad thing.
This system is forecast to approach the peninsula from the open water. There will be no land affects working to weaken this system before it puts one right on the jaw of Baja Sur. This is also a bad thing.
Winds over the Baja Peninsula will generally maintain light to moderate over the Sea of Cortez through Tuesday morning. Afterwards, the winds are forecast to increase to moderate to fresh speeds in response to a high pressure ridge building to the northwest.
Winds over the Sea in the northern state of Baja California are forecast to become strong and from the southeast early on Wednesday continuing through Thursday morning. Strong winds are then expected to develop across the central Sea of Cortez through Thursday night.
The same high pressure will generate fresh winds west of Baja California Monday night through Wednesday morning with seas to 8ft. Pulses of long period southwest swell will continue to impact the entrance of the Sea of Cortez, and the waters west of Baja California Sur through Tuesday night.
So what is in store for the week ahead?
It looks pretty certain we are going to get some weather mid week. The resources are there for this to make landfall as a hurricane, even a Category 2 would not be out of the question. But I and my ouija Board think this system is going to move closer to the peninsula before getting organized. I see this system picking up forward motion as it turns to the north-northeast, so it will likely cross the peninsula, the Sea and northeast into mainland Mexico. I see the southwest Pacific coast of the peninsula enduring Tropical Storm force conditions mid week and La Paz seeing the remains as a Tropical Depression. I was painfully 100% on last week’s call, let’s hope I get this week’s wrong to the weaker side of life.
But what do I know…
Tomas
Look for the update to this article next Wednesday.
Check out our special page: “Remembering Hurricane Odile”
Enjoy your day…
