Monday 8, October 2018 Reduced to a Category 1 Hurricane, Sergio has begun to make a ‘Crazy Ivan’ and change course from the WNW to the NE in the next 12hrs. Forecasts are coming to the consensus that Sergio is going to be unique in returning from well to the west of the peninsula to making landfall about the middle of the peninsula latein the work week. According to the course indicated by the models Sergio will cross the 26°C thermocline early Wednesday beginning its dissipation late Tuesday and move very quickly to pass over the central portions of the peninsula Friday.
| What is a “Crazy Ivan”? |
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Crazy Ivan was a maneuver used by Soviet submarines to clear their baffles in order to see if they were being followed. The sudden, unexpected nature of the maneuver led to the term being used in the English-speaking world. It harkens back to the reign of Ivan the Terrible, Czar of Russia (1530 – 1584) who was known for his radical and often violent mood swings. |
In addition to the dramatic turn the system is forecast to make and the cooler waters which it will cross it is more likely that Sergio will arrive as a diminished tropical cyclone. But like the passage of the previous depression, significant rainfall and possible temporary road closures will result on Hwy 1 near the end of the work week. We will continue to track the progress of Sergio as should the course alter more to the south the system could arrive on the western shores of Baja California Sur as a more potent system. In our database dating back to 1948 no previous tropical cyclone has ever threatened Baja from Sergio’s current location.
Making such a dramatic course alteration takes energy away from a tropical cyclone. Only two previous systems have survived making a dramatic turn from Sergio’s current location to even point in the direction of the Baja peninsula, Hurricane Norman in Huricane Norman September 9-18, 1982 and Tropical Storm Octave Sept 27 to October 2, 1983. Neither storm made landfall as an organized system.
| 10/09 5AM Posting from the National Hurricance Center |
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Tropical Weather Outlook For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Sergio, located a little more than 1200 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. |
Also see:Tropical Cyclone Sergio
Check out our special page: “Remembering Hurricane Odile”
Enjoy your day…
