10-24-18:Tropical Cyclone Willa has been downgraded to a tropical depression and is playing itself out over central mainland Mexico. Effects from the passage of Willa in Baja California Sur was limited to the high surt on southern beaches at the tip of the peninsula, cloudy skies and a brisk west wind following the landfall on the mainland.
Willa is now disintegrating over mainland Mexico. There is no further tropical cyclone development expected in the next 5 days which takes us almost to the first of November. We are well past the date of the previous latest landfall of a named system on the peninsula and only a handful of tropical cyclones have ever formed in the month of November in the whole of the Pacific.
I think we can all breathe a collective sigh for the end of the Baja Tropical Cyclone Season.
Hurricane Willa was the ninth Major Hurricane of the 2018 Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season, the normal numer of Major systems in one season is four. I believe this to be a record number of Major Hurricanes in one season for the Eastern Pacific basin.
|
10/26 5AM Posting from the National Hurricance Center |
|
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Oct 26 2018
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. A small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a trough of low pressure. Although strong upper-level winds and nearby dry air may limit development during the next couple of days, some slow organization of this disturbance is possible late this weekend and early next week while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
|
The peninsula has been under the effect of the first north wind. Stronger and longer than many of the first blows of the season, the cold winds through the night will be more effective than blowing on a bowl of soup in cooling the Eastern Pacific and the Sea of Cortez. Along with the end of the hurricane season we’ll also are likely to see a precipitous drop in fishing, as the prey move to warmer waters. We’re likely to see the all important 26°C thermocline pushed farther south in Monday’s SST reports.
Well behind what is likely to become Vincente is yet another potential development. Along the Gulf of Tehuantepec there will be yet another developing Low as we move into the last days of October, but upper wind currents from the southwest are likely to have moved south of Puerto Vallarta by then and push the very weak system into Chiapas, the southern most state of Mexico.
So what do I see in the week ahead? Well, for one most likely the last Tropical Watch Report for the season, other than the statistical wrap up in December.
It has been a very interesting year. The season has already brought three more than the average number of Eastern pacific hurricanes, and the second earliest Tropical Storm to ever make landfall with Bud in mid June. The year has brought the most Major Hurricanes with 8, with all but three hurricanes that developed in the Eastern Pacific became Major Hurricanes of Category 3 or greater. This season has proven worse than reverse of the normal numbers of 5.2 Hurricanes and 4 Major Hurricanes per season. The remaining 8 systems were Tropical Storms, which is just more than the 7.2 average.
Bud, Carlotta, Olivia, Rosa and Sergio made landfall. Olivia made landfall on the Island of Maui as a Category 1 Hurricane, while Carlotta made landfall along the southern coast of Mexico as a Tropical Storm. Bud, Rosa and Sergio all made landfall in Baja. Rosa and Sergio had greater affect on the northern state of Baja California than they did in the southern state. Rosa and Sergio also shared the pain with mainland states Sonora and Chihuahua.
If the current long range forecasts hold, we will possibly get some rain at the very tip of the peninsula mid week next week (11/24) as what may become Tropical Storm Vincent as it makes its way east to a mainland landfall. But it is equally as likely that we have seen our last drop of rain until our weather pattern shifts to the north in the deep of winter, the first part of February.
But what do I know?
Tomas
Check out our special page: “Remembering Hurricane Odile”
& When does the Baja Tropical Cyclone Season End?
Enjoy your day…
