Eastern Pacific Tropical Watch – Dodging the Last Threat

10-22-18:Well down south, near the Gulf of Tehuantepec we have Tropical Storm Vincente churning along the southern coast of mainland Mexico. The system isn’t forecast to amount to much, in the shadow of Major Hurricane Willa. Vincente poses no threat to the Baja peninsula but will bring buckets of rain to the already saturated southern coast of Mexico. Of only mild concern is Major Hurricane Willa (cattegory 5). Willa is forecast to make landfall at near Mazatlan late Tuesday or early Wednesday morning. The system will be dissipating over cooler waters and it appears Mazatlan itself may only see tropical storm force conditions. Here in Baja the effects will be limited to some cloudy days, large short period surf on south facing beaches (watch the undertow on Cabo’s steep south beaches!) and the increased threat of afternoon thunderstorms at the extreme tip of the peninsula. 

Hurricane Willa is the ninth Major Hurricane of the 2018 Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season, the normal numer of Major systems in one season is four. I believe this to be a record number of Major Hurricanes in one season for the Eastern Pacific basin.

10/22 05AM Posting from the National Hurricance Center

Tropical Watch: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Mon Oct 22 2018 For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Vicente, located a couple hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, and on Hurricane Willa, located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  1. A small area of low pressure, located a little over 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms well southwest of the center.  Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next couple of days as it meanders over open waters. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent

The peninsula has been under the effect of the first north wind. Stronger and longer than many of the first blows of the season, the cold winds through the night will be more effective than blowing on a bowl of soup in cooling the Eastern Pacific and the Sea of Cortez. Along with the end of the hurricane season we’ll also are likely to see a precipitous drop in fishing, as the prey move to warmer waters. We’re likely to see the all important 26°C thermocline pushed farther south in Monday’s SST reports.

Forecast for Tropical Cyclone Willa

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.2W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   6 KT  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  925 MB EYE DIAMETER  10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 64 KT……. 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW. 50 KT……. 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW. 34 KT……. 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICALMILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.1N 107.2W MAX WIND 140 KT…GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT… 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW. 50 KT… 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW. 34 KT…100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.  FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.4N 106.9W MAX WIND 135 KT…GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT… 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW. 50 KT… 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW. 34 KT…100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.1N 105.6W…INLAND MAX WIND  90 KT…GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT… 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW. 50 KT… 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW. 34 KT… 80NE 100SE  70SW  80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.4N 102.5W…INLAND MAX WIND  30 KT…GUSTS  40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z…DISSIPATED

Well behind what is likely to become Vincent is yet another potential development. Along the Gulf of Tehuantepec there will be yet another developing Low as we move into the last days of October, but upper wind currents from the southwest are likely to have moved south of Puerto Vallarta by then and push the very weak system into Chiapas, the southern most state of Mexico.

So what do I see in the week ahead? Well, for one most likely the last Tropical Watch Report for the season, other than the statistical wrap up in December.  

It has been a very interesting year. The season has already brought three more than the average number of Eastern pacific hurricanes, and the second earliest Tropical Storm to ever make landfall with Bud in mid June. The year has brought the most  Major Hurricanes with 8, with all but three hurricanes that developed in the Eastern Pacific became Major Hurricanes of Category 3 or greater. This season has proven worse than reverse of the normal numbers of 5.2 Hurricanes and 4 Major Hurricanes per season. The remaining 8 systems were Tropical Storms, which is just more than the 7.2 average.

Bud, Carlotta, Olivia, Rosa and Sergio made landfall. Olivia made landfall on the Island of Maui as a Category 1 Hurricane, while Carlotta made landfall along the southern coast of Mexico as a Tropical Storm. Bud, Rosa and Sergio all made landfall in Baja. Rosa and Sergio had greater affect on the northern state of Baja California than they did in the southern state. Rosa and Sergio also shared the pain with mainland states Sonora and Chihuahua.

If the current long range forecasts hold, we will possibly get some rain at the very tip of the peninsula mid week next week (11/24) as what may become Tropical Storm Vincent as it makes its way east to a mainland landfall. But it is equally as likely that we have seen our last drop of rain until our weather pattern shifts to the north in the deep of winter, the first part of February.

But what do I know?

Tomas

Check out our special page: “Remembering Hurricane Odile” 

& When does the Baja Tropical Cyclone Season End?

Enjoy your day…