Tropical Cyclone Sergio Aims at Central Baja

Tuesday 09 October, 2018  Hurricane Sergio has been reduced to a Category 1 Hurricane made the turn to the northeast, taking aim at the central Baja peninsula. The forecast path has remained constant, with Sergio forecast to make a landfall as a Tropical Storm on the central Baja coast near San Ignacio Friday. Those with interest along the Central Pacific coast shouold begin preliminary preparations for Tropical Storm conditions. Sergio is still more than 1200 miles west-southwest of the peninsula and all residents of the southern state should remain informed on the progress of Sergio through the week. 

NHC Forecast Data for Tropical Cyclone Sergio at 9PM MDT

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 125.6W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  60 DEGREES AT  10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT. 50 KT……. 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW. 34 KT…….110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.2N 124.2W MAX WIND  60 KT…GUSTS  75 KT. 50 KT… 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW. 34 KT…100NE 120SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.6N 121.9W MAX WIND  55 KT…GUSTS  65 KT. 50 KT… 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW. 34 KT…100NE 130SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.7N 119.3W MAX WIND  50 KT…GUSTS  60 KT. 50 KT… 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW. 34 KT…110NE 140SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.1N 116.5W MAX WIND  50 KT…GUSTS  60 KT. 50 KT… 50NE  60SE  50SW  50NW. 34 KT…130NE 150SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.7N 110.0W…INLAND MAX WIND  35 KT…GUSTS  45 KT. 34 KT… 50NE  80SE  60SW  40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 33.0N 101.8W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND  20 KT…GUSTS  30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z…DISSIPATED

Forecasts currently call for Sergio to make landfall near San Ignacio as a Tropical Storm and cross the peninsula to the northeast very quickly. The speed of the storm may limit rainfall, but the already saturated region is likely to endure flash flooding. If you are considering driving Baja’s Hwy 1 Thursday through Sunday of the coming week you might want to revisit those plans. Temporary road closures in some of the most isolated portions of the peninsula can be expected. Fuel supplies also either come from Rosarita Beach or La Paz or can be temporarily interrupted. 

At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 126.5 West. Sergio is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). An east- northeastward to northeastward motion with a faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ———————- RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Sergio and its remnants is expected to produce storm total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with local amounts to 10 inches in northern Baja California Sur and Sonora in Mexico as well as the Southern Plains and Ozarks of the United States through Sunday. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

The next update to this forecast will come following the 9PM update from the National Hurricane Center

Should the current forecasts hold true this is what the cities of the peninsula should expect: Ensenada and Mexicali will see little from Sergio, while San Felipe is likely to see morning showers on Friday. Baja’s Hwy 1 tranversing the Viscaiano reserve should expect temporary road closures late Thursday and through Friday for flooding. Don’t be the first to cross an paved arroyo and just don’t cross unpaved ones. Loreto is going to be on the fringe of the forecast for Tropical Cyclone Sergio. Thursday will see increasing clouds and Friday will see rain and winds to 32kts from the SSW. Rainfall is expected to be around 0.30″ In La Paz Thursday will see thickening clouds Friday the effects of the storm are forecast to be lessened, with wind and showers to less than 0.10″ and winds to 25kts from the SSW. In Los Cabos Tuesday the effects will be increasing clouds Thursday with the likelihood of showers on Friday. Winds will build late Thursday to peak Friday near 18kts from the west. 

Look for the ports of Baja California Sur to be closed Thursday and Friday for the passage of Sergio. This will cancel all marine recreational activities, so don’t blame the providers