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AT 09AM FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI – PAINE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN QUICKLY… TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA…
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION LOCATION...26.1N 117.0W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the west coast of the Baja California peninsula.
| Forecast for Tropical Cyclone Paine |
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TROPICAL STORM LOCATED 26.1N 117.0W AT 20/1500Z FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.7N 116.7W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 29.2N 116.1W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 30.2N 115.2W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z…DISSIPATED |
09AM MDT 20 September 2016 Paine has lessened, and is now a moderate Tropical Storm about 185 miles southwest of Isla Ceralvo and is moving north into colder waters which are draining the cyclonic energy from the storm very quickly. Forecasts have now been revised dramtically downward and the Tropical Storm Watch for Baja California has been canceled. TS Paine is now forecast to move across the peninsula beginning tomorrow as a remnant Low. Although the cyclonic dangers of Paine appear to have passed the affected region could still see significant amounts of rain over the next 48-72hrs as this system moves to the northeast into Arizona.
On Monday the passage of Hurricane Paine more than 350 miles to the west of the Baja peninsula drew monsoonal moisture west from the mainland and heavy rains and intense thunderstorms passed across much of the southern half of Baja California Sur. Today the humidity has decreased and the forecast for afternoon thunderstorms has been put off until the end of the work week.
09PM MDT Tropical Storm Paine is located near 26.1N 117.0W and is moving 360° @ 12kts. Central barometric pressure is 1002Mb and winds are 40kts with gusts to 50kts making Paine a solid Tropical Storm. Tropical Storm force winds extend out 70 to 80 miles on the eastern side of Paine and 30 to 50 miles on the western side. Twelve-foot seas extend out 120 miles on the eastern side and 60 to 90 miles on the western side. The strong northeast flow is already dragging a good deal of the moisture northeast and those portions of Baja California that are currently experiencing cloudy skies with the threat of rain should consider themselves in the path of Paine over the next few days.
Paine is currently forecast to make landfall as a depression near San Quintin late Wednesday morning . Folks in the central portions of the northern state of Baja California should make preparations for heavy rains and drivers transversing Baja Hwy 1 should be prepared for temporary road closures as the system moves northeast across the state. Tropical rains of this intensity rarely affect the northern state as will Paine, rainfall could exceed 3″.
The next update to this information will follow the 3PM release on Tuesday.
Tomas
