Tropical Storm Rick – Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone

08AM MST Thursday, November 20,, 2015 Tropical Storm Rick continues to churn about 465 miles south southwest of Cabo San Lucas with no change in intensity this evening. Rick remains a small and very concentrated system surrounded by environmental conditions unfavorable to tropical cyclones. The path forecast remains constant over the last 24hrs with the system forecast to move to the north-northwest over the next 4 days and cross the 26°C thermo cline about 400 miles to the west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas on Monday and dissipate without the center of the system getting any closer to the peninsula. Rick only has about 24hrs more over waters warm enough to continue building the system, but with limited development today maximum forecasts for Friday have been reduced and Rick will barely make a respectable Tropical Storm tomorrow at its peak.

The most significant impact of Rick on the southern peninsula will be in the form of the chance of spin-off showers beginning Monday and possibly lasting into the first part of the week. With every revised forecast the chance of rain in the southern half of the peninsula has decreased. We could have some scattered showers and even a few places could have locally heavy rainfall, but accumulation amounts are all estimated well under 0.5″. With such a dry air mass over the peninsula we could escape with just a few cloudy days. It is highly unlikely that we will have any significant weather impact should the current forecast tracks hold.

We have many folks in Baja in this season that have never experienced the threat of a tropical cyclone. It has been our experience over 13 years of weather forecasting here in Baja and particularly tropical cyclones, that there are three kinds of storm watchers. Those that like to scare people, those that like to be scared and those that want the real information. We have weathered the worst of the tropical cyclones in the last three decades in a wide variety of Baja environments. As far as this system goes the effects on the peninsula should remain limited to the threat of showers as the dissipating moisture from the system close to 400 miles away from Baja, breaks up and move to the east-northeast. The radius of effect of this system will be 30-70 miles at best and the closest this system will come to the peninsula under current forecast as an organized system is 400 miles. Accumulations are not expected to be significant, but in events of heavy rainfall do not be the first to cross a flooded paved arroyo and patience is the best virtue in never crossing un unpaved flooded arroyo. Winds along the peninsula during the passage of the remains of Rick are not expected to be significant.

At 2PM MST Tropical Storm Rich was located near 16.3N 111.5W and was moving 285° at10kts. Central barometric pressure was 1002Mb and winds were 35kts with gusts to 45kts, making the system just barely a Tropical Storm. Tropical Storm force winds extend out 30 miles only in the eastern side of the system. Twelve foot seas extend out 30 to 60 miles on the eastern side and 45 miles on the western side.

Tropical Storm Rick is forecast to live out Saturday as a weak Tropical Storm before beginning to diminish into a depression by late Sunday or Monday. The air mass over the peninsula is now not only exceptional cold for support of tropical cyclone activity but also very dry. It even remains questionable that the peninsula will even see showers early next week. Although one never says never with Mother Nature, the close approach of a tropical cyclone to the peninsula is has 3 of the 4 required characteristics absent, virtually precluding a Baja landfall.

The official Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season runs through November 30, but only a handful of tropical cyclones have formed in the basin since 1948. In 2013 Tropical Storm Sonya gave Baja a thrill the last week of October and into November,  as it initially moved in the direction of Baja California Sur then passed about 175 miles to the south and made landfall near Mazatlan. In 1991 Tropical Storm Nora in 1991 was a Category 2 storm about 300 miles to the south southwest of Cabo San Lucas, then quickly fell apart on November 11 and dissipated about 125 miles south of Cabo San Lucas. In 1951 an alleged unnamed storm took a swing and a miss at East Cape, passing a scant 50 miles to the east of Cabo Pulmo as a very weak system. 

The next update to this page will follow the 9AM release from the National Hurricane Center.