BUD WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR…
| 09 PM MDT June 13, 2018: The government of Mexico has continued a Tropical Storm Warning for southern Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to La Paz, including Cabo San Lucas. |
BUD EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON THURSDAY…
SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…20.5N 109.1W
ABOUT 175 MI…280 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/HPRESENT
MOVEMENT…NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES
Wednesday 13 June 2018 12PM MDT Bud has been reduced to a Tropical Storm some 265 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the tip of the peninsula. The path of Bud remains constant and Cabo San Lucas and the tiip of the peninsula remain in the crosshairs of Tropical Cyclone Bud. Bud’s remaining course to the peninsula is over sub 26°C waters of the Pacific, look for significant more weakenng of the system before it reaches Baja California Sur. Bud has slowed to a crawl oer the cooler waters and is forecast to make landfall close to Cabo San Lucas early Friday morning.
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Forecast Path for Tropical Cyclone Bud |
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TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 109.1W AT 14/0300Z ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 21.4N 109.5W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.6N 109.9W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.3N 110.0W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.8N 109.8W…INLAND FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 33.0N 108.0W…POST-TROP/INLAND EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NMON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z…DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 109.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z |
Tropical Storm Bud is now located near 19’06″N 108’48″W and is moving 330° @ 4kts. Barometric pressure is 990mb and winds a 60kts with gusts to 70 kts. Tropical storm force winds extend out 90-100 miles on the eastern side of the system and 70-80 miles in the western side. .
There is little doubt that Bud is going to rondezvous with the Baja peninsuila sometime Friday into Saturday, but the forecast continues to show a lesser storm reaching the peninsula with each update. Residents of the tip of the peninsula, particularly those on the Pacific coast, should prepare for Tropical Storm conditions. The system will weaken quickly once over the peninsula and La Paz under current forecasts should expect conditions short of Tropical Storm force.
Rainfall projections vary dramatically from various sources, but this is not a particularly wet system. 2-6″ seems to be about the average of these sources. But it is important to remember that our parched desert environment reacts radically to any amount of rainfall and dry arroyos and city streets can be quickly overwhelmed by by even limited rainfall and become raging rapids.
To avoid becoming a hurricane statistic the BajaInsider recommends you don’t aren’t the first to cross flooded paved roadways, and never cross a flooded unimproved arroyo.
Batten down the hatches folks, it looks like Friday and Saturday may bring us some rain and a little wind. For our visiting tourist friends and Hurricane Virgins, life at the tip of the peninsula is likely to have returned to normal by Monday. Baja Sur handles these smaller storms with great aplum.
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